Industry Change Required
Revolution or Evolution
Recently a lot of attention has been given to the enormous opportunity for new technological advancements to transform the way we grow crops. The spotlight is on production agriculture now more than at any time before as investors and entrepreneurs seek to revolutionize the way that we go about the business of farming. Is it possible that this may be more of an evolution than a revolution and will require several more years than most high tech executives currently have outlined in their business plan timelines?
Technology Adoption Curve and Mr. Rogers
In order to fully understand the rate-of-adoption for agricultural producers one needs to look back at a study that was conducted on this subject by Everett Rogers, a professor at Iowa State University in 1962. Mr. Rogers grew up on a family farm where the primary crop grown was corn. He experienced first-hand, in the years of The Great Depression, the effects that disease and drought were having on their own crops. In 1925 an agronomist by the name of Henry Wallace developed a double cross inbred hybrid corn that possessed certain qualities that included a resilience to the adverse effects of weather and pests. Rogers noted that in a 1933 study conducted by the USDA only 0.1% of growers were planting the new variety even though it was proven that it was superior in many ways, including yielding on average 25% more than other available varieties. By 1946 the adoption of hybrid corn was at 70% for all corn acreage. It took over 21 years to achieve these levels of incorporating the new technology into the farming operations of most US farms. Through these observations Mr. Rogers developed a technology adoption curve (published in his findings in the book “Diffusion of Innovations”) that others, including Geoffrey Moore, author of “Crossing the Chasm”, used to explain how people and markets embrace new innovative tools for use in their businesses.
Quickened Pace But Fast Enough
To be fair, a lot has changed over the years and we are living in a faster paced world where it can take considerably less time to integrate new technologies into todays’ agribusinesses. If one looks at the adoption of GMO soybeans we see that this, in fact, is true. Within 8 years almost 80% of all fields were planted with the new seed over other available varieties. Another example of this change in rate of acceptance is the incorporation of precision agriculture tools like geo-referenced mapping, GPS guidance, yield monitors, variable rate technology and aerial imagery in US agriculture. Introduced in 1992 the yield monitor was being utilized on almost 45% of all soybean and corn acreage by 2006 (14 years). Variable rate technology did not experience the same rapid growth as yield monitoring with 8% of soybean and 12% of corn acreage deploying systems 10 years after its’ introduction.
Ch-ch-ch-changes
Growers are using smart phones and tablet computers to access market, weather and agronomic information to help them make better decisions. But to truly transform their decision processes requires something that may not be an integral part of their DNA. Change. Changing the way that they go about the business of farming from one that uses intuition, tribal knowledge, past experiences and an increasing reliance on the recommendations of their trusted advisors to a methodology that is data driven by economics and science is not an easy transition.
A better understanding of the farmer persona may provide answers to some of the questions regarding how the technology rate-of-adoption can be accelerated. Or it might just provide an explanation as why we are where we are along the curve that Mr. Rogers hypothesized so many years ago.
